“You Say Pragmatism, I Say Humility” Featuring Dr. Alexis Crow, PwC

Today we were thrilled to be joined by Dr. Alexis Crow, Partner and Global Head of the Geopolitical Investing Practice at PwC. Alexis is a Council Member of the World Economic Forum, a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at Columbia Law School, and a Former Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council. Her research is focused on financial stability, the future of trade and globalization, global energy markets, and investing in real assets, technology, and the future of the consumer. Alexis joined PwC in 2015 and her team helps companies and investors globally think about portfolio risk and portfolio strategy, investment data analytics and also frequently engages with boards as part of their practice. It was our pleasure to host Alexis and we learned a great deal on our global macroeconomics “magic carpet ride.”

In our discussion, Alexis shares background on her team and the main questions clients are facing across various industries. We discuss PwC’s differentiation with their global macroeconomics expertise, how Alexis divides her time globally and domestically, and PwC’s diverse client base in corporates, energy, media, private markets, and real estate. Alexis shares her perspective on the geopolitical landscape in the more complex world we face today in comparison to when she joined PwC in 2015, including the shifting dynamics between the US and China, the recurring concern of the direction of interest rates and the underlying sources of inflation, the interconnectedness of energy costs and inflation, the implications of the upcoming Presidential election, in particular for energy and immigration, and strategies for international expansion for smaller companies. We also discuss the challenging geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and Latin America and their respective complex dynamics, the US budget deficit and concerns about its impact, how other countries have successfully utilized productive debt for growth, the skills needed in energy companies for future economic growth, the implications of AI advancement over the next 20-30 years, and the emergence of new geopolitical standards. Alexis was gracious with her time and we ended with asking for her thoughts on governmental intervention in free markets over the next decade. We covered a great deal of territory and appreciate Alexis sharing her unique insights with us all.

Mike Bradley kicked us off by emphasizing the anticipation around tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with consensus suggesting the FED will temporarily pause interest rate hikes. He highlighted that WTI crude oil price has recently dropped in the last few weeks and is now trading below levels prior to the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel. He noted the market’s seemingly unwarranted confidence in the stability of the Mideast and further highlighted a handful of key energy transition events over the past week that have set back transition expectations. He wrapped by noting that the Panamanian Government (an investor friendly business regime) recently caved into protestors’ demands for a referendum on the recently approved Cobre Panama copper mine deal, and that this move highlights that governmental risks for the backbone of energy transition (mining) are real. Arjun Murti chimed in with his thoughts on the need for energy companies to consider global expansion with the maturation of the shale industry, the associated challenges faced by companies operating internationally, and the inherent difficulty of the energy business. He also discusses the role of European supermajors in meeting global energy demands and raises the question of how smaller domestic companies can successfully venture into international markets, with the challenges they may encounter without the resources and scale of larger corporations.

We greatly enjoyed our global discussion with Alexis today and hope you find it as interesting as we did. Thanks to you all!