“No More Money!” Featuring Fernando Oris de Roa, Entrepreneur and Former Ambassador of Argentina to the United States

Today we were very fortunate to host Fernando Oris de Roa for an insightful discussion on Argentina and the recent dramatic election result there. Fernando served as the Ambassador of Argentina to the United States in 2018 and 2019 is currently an Independent Director of Allkem. He is an accomplished entrepreneur and business leader in Argentina and earned his MPA from the Harvard Kennedy School. With the country’s recent election of political newcomer Javier Milei as President, we were thrilled to visit with Fernando and explore the implications of the new presidency for Argentina and Latin America at large.

Fernando first shares his perspective on the political landscape in Argentina, the significance of Milei’s win, the libertarian philosophies Milei will bring to office, and reactions within the Argentine business community. We explore Milei’s announced and other potential key players in a new government, the United States’s cautiously supportive stance thus far, the nation’s vast energy and economic opportunities, the issue of dollarization, geopolitical considerations with neighboring countries, and China’s growing influence in Latin America. We also discuss the current investment climate in Argentina, the potential for expansion in the mining sector, Fernando’s recommended short-term goals for the nation, including stabilizing inflation, the potential for sweeping budget cuts to reduce the size of government, and much more. In our conversation with Fernando, we began to wonder if a good analogy to Milei’s win is Lech Walesa in Poland or Vaclev Havel in Czechoslovakia, instead of the often repeated “Trump of Argentina” comparison. It’s perhaps too early to tell but a rejection of socialism and government control has clearly happened. We ended by asking Fernando for his ten-year view for Argentina. It was an insightful discussion and we greatly appreciated hearing his insights.

Mike Bradley kicked us off by indicating that 10-year bond yields plunged ~20bps and are now trading at a 3-month low of 4.2%. He noted that bond traders are betting the FED is done hiking rates and could soon be cutting due to a growing consensus of a U.S. “soft landing.” He highlighted a couple of rumblings stemming from the COP 28 conference and noted pleas from some more vocal individuals on a more aggressive phase out of coal & other fossil fuels, on the other hand, there was also constructive dialogue for a more aggressive nuclear buildout and more stringent methane monitoring. He highlighted that broader equity markets continue to trade sideways, are technically overbought (post a 10% rally off October lows) and that near-term trading caution is warranted. He highlighted that WTI price traded down to ~$72/bbl. (-$2-$3/bbl.) this week and really needs to hold technical support levels of $72.50/bbl. He further noted that crude price weakness is due both to CTA contract liquidation and physical weakness, which has pushed crude curves into contango from long-held backwardation. He also discussed that the recent OPEC+ meeting concluded with Russia/Saudi extending 1.3mmbpd of cuts, a handful of OPEC+ members agreeing to a 0.9mmbpd “voluntary” cuts through Q1’24, but that traders also remain unconvinced for most of these voluntary OPEC+ cuts, which has pushed crude traders into “show me” mode. He rounded out by highlighting Javier Milei’s win of the Argentinian Presidency rallied the Argentinian stock market by 40% on early optimism that he might contain runaway inflation and further open up the oil & gas and mining industries. Jeff Tillery also joined for the exciting discussion with Fernando.

Fernando was a fantastic guest and we hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. Our best to you all. Tomorrow evening marks the start of Hanukkah… so a “Happy Hanukkah” to everyone just a bit early.