It was our privilege today to welcome the Honorable Jason Kenney, former Premier of Alberta, for a timely and insightful discussion on Canada’s upcoming federal election (April 28). Jason holds 25 years of public service at both the federal and provincial level with wide-ranging policy and leadership experience. He served as the 18th Premier of Alberta from 2019 to 2022 and now serves as a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones, in addition to holding several board positions. Prior to his time as Premier, Jason held several key federal cabinet roles, including Minister for Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism, Minister of Employment and Social Development, Minister of National Defense, and Chair of the Cabinet Operations Committee. He was first elected a Member of Parliament in 1997 and was re-elected six times. We were thrilled to host Jason and learn from his unique perspectives on what the election means for energy, trade, and the U.S.-Canada relationship.
In our conversation, Jason walked us through Canada’s evolving political landscape and the two leading candidates: Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party and Mark Carney of the Liberal Party. He highlights key issues shaping the election including Trudeau’s long tenure and declining popularity, Canada’s weak per capita GDP growth, an overwhelmed immigration system, a doubling of housing costs, and issues of rising addiction and crime. Jason explains how Poilievre maintained a commanding 18-month lead in the polls until Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric reignited deep-rooted anxieties about Canadian sovereignty, prompting Trudeau’s exit and opening the door for Carney to reframe the election around “Who can stand up to Trump?” while Poilievre continues to focus on affordability and change. We explore the role of minor parties in Canada’s Parliamentary system, the unprecedented focus on energy and climate in Sunday’s federal debate, expected policy outcomes depending on who wins, and the looming 2026 USMCA renegotiation. Jason shares his perspective on Canada’s opportunity to grow LNG exports, the barriers posed by the Liberal government’s zero-gas electricity rule and industrial carbon tax, and the potential for Alberta to become a hub for large-scale, gas-powered data centers given its cold climate and abundant stranded gas. We discuss Canadian electricity exports to the U.S., broader infrastructure challenges tied to electrification and economic growth, Canada’s continued reliance on U.S. exports, and the growing sense that Canada’s “holiday from history” is over. We also reflect on the emotional, historic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, the hope for reconciliation and renewed cooperation, and much more. It was a fascinating discussion. If you’re interested in watching the energy and climate portion of Sunday night’s Canadian Federal Leaders’ debate, the 18-minute segment is linked here.
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting President Trump’s recent pressure on Fed Chairman Powell to immediately lower interest rates or risk getting fired. While global fear and uncertainty remains high, Mike noted that that it can and probably will be mitigated when Trump signs some high-profile tariff deals. In broader equity markets, the S&P Volatility Index remains pretty elevated, which was evident by the DJIA plunging by ~1,000 points on Monday and surging over 1,000 points on Tuesday! Investors are closely watching Tesla’s Q1 earnings, with one analyst calling it a “Code Red” Moment, which could have broader market implications. He shared several bond, currency and equity market stats for Canada. From an energy equity reporting standpoint, Liberty Energy and Halliburton reported Q1 results, with both companies noting that E&Ps haven’t decided to cut 2025 activity levels yet but are looking at a range of macroeconomic scenarios in anticipation of oil price pressure. For the remainder of this week, we’ll see a number of Miners, Natural Gas E&Ps, Oil Service, Refiners & Electric Utilities reporting. In natural gas, U.S. price has dropped this week by ~$0.30/MMBtu (~$3.00/MMBtu) and ~$0.60/MMBtu over the last two weeks and now trades at November 2024 levels. From an oil market standpoint, WTI continued its rebound this week (up $3-$4/bbl to ~$64/bbl) mostly driven by a lack of negative news. He noted this week marks five years since WTI price plunged to -$40/bbl, and shared the significant total return performance of both Canadian and U.S. E&Ps since that infamous event. He closed by highlighting how critical the Canadian oil industry is to the U.S., given that the U.S. imports >4mmbpd of Canadian oil (65-70% of total U.S. oil imports).
Arjun Murti emphasized his enthusiasm for Canadian energy, describing it as a historically underappreciated yet highly profitable and resilient sector. Despite longstanding export limitations and a heavy reliance on the U.S. market, Canadian oil and gas companies have delivered world-class returns, strong capital efficiency, and operate under high environmental and labor standards. With global energy demand rising, Arjun makes the case that Canadian energy should play a larger role in the global energy mix, but to do so, Canada must improve its infrastructure and policy environment to enable greater exports beyond the U.S.
We can’t thank Jason enough for joining us to discuss this important topic affecting the future of Canada. We hope you enjoy and learn as much from the conversation as we did. Our best to you all!