It was our pleasure to welcome back our good friend Roger Pielke Jr., Author of The Honest Broker on Substack and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, for an insightful discussion on the U.S. Department of Energy’s climate risk assessment report on the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions (linked here). Roger is a Professor Emeritus in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, where he previously served as a professor in the Environmental Studies department for over 23 years. His research focuses on science and technology policy, the politicization of science, government science advice, and energy and climate. The Honest Broker reaches more than 36,000 subscribers in over 160 countries. We always value Roger’s perspective on the evolving climate policy and energy landscape and were thrilled to visit with him.
In our conversation, Roger provides context for the DOE report, including the history of U.S. climate regulation and key milestones such as the Clean Air Act, Massachusetts v. EPA classifying CO₂ as a pollutant, and the endangerment finding under the Obama Administration. He outlines both the constructive discussions and contentious debates the report sparked as well as challenges in climate science discourse where debate is polarized along partisan lines and questions or alternative views are often penalized. We discuss energy demand beyond Western-centric perspectives and the importance of objective, fact-based discussion in balancing emissions reduction goals with realistic energy needs and technological development. Roger shares his perspective on the political implications of the DOE report, including how it could influence the endangerment finding, the low scientific bar required under the Clean Air Act, the need to democratize climate science for broader public understanding, the importance of constructive debate among experts, the risk of overly aggressive emissions policies on energy costs and reliability, and the necessity of balancing climate action with political and economic realities. We explore how rising energy demand drives innovation, the actual outcomes of climate policies versus their intended goals, how the 2009 endangerment finding is outdated and needs updating to reflect current science, Roger’s assessment of the strengths and criticisms of the DOE report, and his recent attendance at the Abundance Conference, where he observed bipartisan engagement and discussions on expanding access to energy and improving living standards. We cover the American Enterprise Institute’s nonpartisan mission and focus areas including technology, science, energy, and higher education, the value of fostering “intellectual hospitality,” the role of experts in democracy, the importance of leadership in preserving institutional integrity, the need for healthier, fact-based discussions on climate and policy, and much more. We greatly appreciate Roger for joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all.
As you’ll hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Steven Koonin’s opinion piece published Monday in the WSJ is linked here. Roger’s post, “What is the Scientific Threshold for GHG Endangerment?” is linked here and his piece on the climate report titled “A Red Team Climate Report: To correct course, we need open, respectful and informed debate” is linked here. For additional reading, Andrew Dessler’s critique of the DOE’s report is linked here.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that 10-year bond yields are hovering just above 4% and are likely to be heavily influenced this week by several important economic reports (CPI, PPI & Initial Jobless Claims). These reports could very well set the tone heading into the Sept. 17th FOMC Rate Decision Meeting, where the current consensus calls for an initial rate cut of 25bps and two additional 25bps rate cuts through year-end. On the equity market front, the S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs as equity market enthusiasm “temporarily” grows for interest rate cuts. Historically, September has been the worst performing month over the past five years (down ~4%), which is something investors are taking note of, especially with the broader equity market trading near all-time highs. On the crude oil commodity front, WTI oil price was down ~$2/bbl last week (~$62/bbl) but still managed a modest rally over the weekend despite OPEC+ announcing another production increase for October (~135kbpd). While OPEC+ has already announced “stated” production increases of 2.2mmbpd this year, “actual” oil barrels on the water (through the end of September) likely only amount to ~1.5mmbpd. This October oil production increase, plus previous production increases, is feeding concerns over both a growing OPEC+ market share strategy and 2026 global oil surplus thesis. He also highlighted that President Milei’s ruling party in Argentina suffered some key provincial election defeats over the weekend which is weighing heavily on its bonds, currencies and equities (down ~13%). He ended by sharing a few key themes he picked up at Barclays Energy & Power conference last week, including “speed to market” for electricity, a narrowing investor divide (beginning in mid-2026) between bearish oil price sentiment and bullish natural gas sentiment, and a growing investor appetite for geothermal. Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers joined for today’s session and emphasized the importance of examining research and policy outcomes objectively, noting that the recent DOE report has sparked a positive, necessary debate despite some negative social media commentary.
Thanks again to Roger for joining us, and thanks to you all for being part of the COBT community!