Today we had the unique opportunity to record COBT live from the Gulf Coast Power Association’s (GCPA) Annual Spring Conference in Houston. Joining us on stage were Mary Anne Brelinsky, President and Chief Commercial Officer of Alpha Generation, and Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon. We were thrilled to explore the current power landscape with Sean and Mary Anne.
In our conversation, we examine the growing complexity of operating in today’s power markets, with Mary Anne explaining how managing a multi-ISO portfolio requires constant coordination across operations, commercial teams, and real-time decision-making in the face of shifting weather patterns, fuel volatility, and evolving regulations. She emphasizes that forecasting remains one of the industry’s biggest challenges, as decisions are made daily with imperfect information and an increasingly dynamic grid where supply and demand must be balanced in real time. Sean builds on these themes by discussing how Amperon is using AI and machine learning to improve forecasting accuracy, streamline workflows, and help customers navigate volatility, noting that the sheer volume of data has made traditional approaches obsolete. We cover the rapid acceleration in power demand driven by AI, data centers, and broader electrification trends, with Sean highlighting that while not all projected load will materialize, the directional shift is real and significant.
Mary Anne emphasizes the growing importance of reliability, resilience, and cybersecurity, noting that as more critical infrastructure becomes electrified, the stakes for keeping the grid secure and operational continue to rise. We discuss how the industry’s focus has shifted from improving efficiency to increasing output, with Mary Anne highlighting efforts to expand capacity at existing plants as one of the fastest and most practical solutions. Sean adds that capital is now flowing back into the power sector in a meaningful way, describing this as a structural turning point where electricity is finally being recognized as foundational to economic growth. We touch on increasing public and political attention on power markets, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the growing role of demand-side and behind-the-meter solutions in managing peak load. We close on the idea that while this may be one of the most challenging periods the industry has faced, it is also one of the most exciting, given the scale of opportunity and the critical role power will play in shaping the future.
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by emphasizing that markets are extremely volatile and remain sharply focused on President Trump’s Iran deadline (Tuesday evening) and his threat to bomb strategic targets, including bridges and electric generation assets. From a bond market perspective, the 10-year yield was trading at ~4.3%, with bonds taking their cue from developments in the Iran war and the associated commodity price fallout. Bond investors appear to be largely ignoring upcoming economic reports, including March CPI, and are instead trying to better understand what the Iran war could mean for long-term inflation. From an oil market perspective, WTI closed at ~$110/bbl, up ~$8/bbl over the last five trading days. Seaborne barrels appear to be a better representative of the true “physical” oil market, with Dated Brent surging to over $140/bbl this week. Oil traders seem focused on how high prices might rise with further escalation, while long-term investors appear more focused on when and how far oil prices might plunge once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up ~3.5% over the last week and appears to be pricing in some modest optimism for an off-ramp in the Iran war. Energy, however, was the worst-performing sector over the same period, down ~3.5%, with most Energy subsectors down 1% to 4%. On a YTD basis, though, Energy remains by far the best-performing S&P sector, up ~35%. On the electricity and power side, Electric Utilities and IPPs were up marginally over the last week, while SMRs were down ~3%. On a YTD basis, Electric Utilities were up ~9%, Smaller Distributed Generation / Frac & Large Generation equities were up ~30%, IPPs were down ~15%, and SMRs were down ~30%. He wrapped by pointing to the number of potential Iranian strategic bridges and the size of the country’s installed electricity generation base. Iran has roughly 50 critical or strategic bridges that could be potential targets, as well as ~95 GW of installed electric generation, including roughly 75 to 80 GW of natural gas-fired capacity—roughly comparable to California’s installed electric generation base.
About Mary Anne Brelinsky
Mary Anne Brelinsky is responsible for leading all commercial-facing aspects of the AlphaGen platform. Prior to AlphaGen, Ms. Brelinsky served as President of EDF Energy North America, which she grew to become the third largest energy retail business in North America. While at EDF, she was responsible for the company’s trading, hedging and optimization, generation services, and retail businesses. Before that, she was a Senior Manager at Reliant Energy overseeing the structuring and pricing desk and developing power products for large commercial and industrial clients.
About Sean Kelly
For almost 20 years, Sean has been at the forefront of the energy trading industry, working for Tenaska, Lehman, EDF, and E.On. While at EDF, he led the transition of two nuclear plants (Nine Mile and Ginna) into the NYISO market, then led the buildout of E. On’s North American trading desk. Next, he co-founded Bridge Power Consulting, and sold to Albireo Energy in 2019. He co-founded Amperon in 2018, and as CEO led the company to a $20M Series B fundraising round in 2023.
Thank you to the GCPA team for inviting us and for their help in making today’s episode possible. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did!