Today we were pleased to be joined by Steve Hilton, Republican candidate for Governor of California, for a wide-ranging discussion on California’s economic competitiveness, energy policy, affordability challenges, and the future of opportunity in the state.
In our conversation, Steve shared his perspective on the policies and reforms he believes are necessary to address California’s rising cost of living, high energy prices, housing affordability concerns, and broader economic challenges. He discussed his campaign proposals to reduce gasoline and electricity costs, reform the state’s tax structure, streamline government, and expand housing affordability. Steve outlined his views on California’s climate, energy, and regulatory policies, arguing for a more pragmatic approach focused on affordability, domestic energy production, economic growth, and reducing bureaucratic complexity.
Throughout the discussion, Steve emphasized that California’s long-standing strengths, including its innovation ecosystem, entrepreneurial culture, natural resources, and deep talent base, position the state for renewed growth and competitiveness. We explore the role energy policy plays in economic development, affordability, and business investment, along with the broader challenges facing one of the nation’s most influential economies. We appreciate Steve for sharing his time and look forward to staying in touch as the campaign continues.
Mike Bradley opened by noting that a peace agreement to end the 15-week war with Iran appears within reach, with a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expected to be signed Friday that could lead to a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While an MOU would represent an important milestone, the greater challenge will be ensuring both sides uphold their commitments. In oil markets, the prospect of a deal drove WTI down ~$8/bbl to ~$77/bbl, its lowest closing level since the first week of the conflict. Focus is now shifting to the post-war landscape, with oil strategists closely watching how quickly tanker traffic normalizes through the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which OPEC restores supply. While traders appear increasingly bearish in the near term, Mike emphasized a more constructive intermediate-term outlook.
From an energy equity standpoint, the sharp decline in oil prices has weighed on the sector, with energy equities pulling back ~4% this week, making it the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500. The energy sector has effectively round-tripped since the start of the war (down ~2%). Despite this, the forward oil curve remains supportive, with the 12-month WTI strip at ~$73/bbl (~$10/bbl higher than pre-war levels), underscoring a more constructive medium-term outlook. Energy’s weighting in the S&P 500 has declined from ~3.5% (pre-war) to ~3.0%, even though recent events have reinforced the critical role of energy.
From a U.S. bond market standpoint, the 10-year bond yield (~4.45%) has drifted modestly lower this week. Consensus expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with attention focused on forward interest rate guidance and Chairman Warsh’s tone and policy path going forward. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 has gained ~1.0% this week, bringing it to within 1% of its all-time high. Several market leaders (Big Tech & Semis) pulled back on Tuesday and could signal an early crack in market leadership. He concluded by highlighting investor enthusiasm surrounding the recent SpaceX IPO (+20% on Day 1 and +45% since its debut), noting that the company is now the fifth-largest publicly traded company globally.