We are back from a week off celebrating America’s 250th birthday and ahead of some upcoming travel over the remainder of July. We are planning to do a series of videos over the next few weeks on our takeaways at this juncture of the ongoing Strait of Hormuz Crisis. As usual, our focus will be on the longer-term themes and implications, rather than attempting a play-by-play of current events.
In fact, as we are recording this on Wednesday June 8, there are renewed military strikes happening, President Trump has been quoted as saying the 14-point MOU signed in mid-June is over, and oil prices are rallying in response. Going forward, we expect lots of twists and turns for crude oil, refined products, and LNG markets as regional turmoil dials up and dials down. It is all part of our broader Geopolitical Super Vol mega theme.
Even so, there are some long-term takeaways from this crisis that are emerging, which is the focus of these videos. We start the series this week by reflecting on the top surprises and non-surprises at this juncture of the crisis. We have three main surprises around crude oil, refining, and the health of the broader economy and stock market as well as several non-surprises that relate to those topics that we will run through.