We continue our July series focused on Strait of Hormuz Crisis takeaways with a focus on energy and power sub-sector stock performance. We take a look back at growth and profitability since 2021, which has yielded some surprising results and areas for improvement.
Our key messages from the four charts we go through this week are as follows:
- Energy versus Tech has been inversely correlated since 2021, with Energy surprisingly having kept pace with the Mag-7 over this time frame.
- Despite improving growth expectations Utilities have lagged on higher interest rates. The question is when does improving growth expectations for utilities overcome what might be an ongoing interest rate headwind.
- Traditional energy equities are again discounting below normal oil prices…perhaps not quite trough conditions, but something only a little bit better.
- There has been considerable sub-sector divergence on profitability and growth over the last 5 years, with some surprising winners, losers, and areas for improvement. LNG, IPPs, midstream, and downstream sectors are all winners. There is scope for improvement from IOCs, both oily and gassy E&Ps, and oil services.