We have started a heavy Fall travel schedule, with our annual talk at the Oxford Energy Seminar last week and a corporate event in the Rocky Mountains this past week. We wanted to provide a trio of “long-takes” that are jumping out at us: (1) a burst in energy policy rationality and normalization that is being seen from three areas that were previously all in in “The Energy Transition”–California, Canada, and the IEA. (2) we continue to see mounting evidence that fears of an “oil glut” are way overdone, though we likely still need to get through potential shoulder month, seasonal softness over the next 4-8 weeks. Regardless, we believe we are in a bottoming phase for oil-leveraged energy equities which have been very out of favor. (3) A reminder that it is the outlook for returns and growth, not “peak demand” or “oil glut” narratives the IEA or Street analysts, that will drive energy equities.
