For the past month we have been recording these videos several days in advance of publication and repeating the line that we hope peace will have been declared and the Strait reopened by the time of Saturday publication. Today the message is different. We are recording this late morning New York time on Thursday, April 9. A fragile ceasefire is sort of still in place and there is optimism that shipping volumes in and out of the Strait of Hormuz is on track to revert to something much higher than where we’ve been. It will of course take some time to get back to fully normal pre-War flows.
We were originally planning a longer discussion with a power point on evolving our Super Vol theme to more explicitly call it Geopolitical Super Vol, and we will touch upon that in this video podcast. But given the dramatic ceasefire news and major equity and commodity market moves, we will instead address nine questions and takeaways that we see from this crisis.
- What is your most important takeaway following the ceasefire?
- In the short-term, will oil prices revert to pre-War levels?
- What about oil prices over the medium-to-longer-term?
- How was such a sizable shock not even worse in terms of impacts?
- What is your takeaway for US consumers?
- Where could we be better?
- What about Canada?
- Why are we sticking with Super Vol as our price framework?
- So where do you come out on investment opportunities in both traditional and new energies?