The EV S-Curve Rorschach Test
We start this week with a look at some recent electric vehicle (EV) headlines: Yes, with EVs, you can find a narrative that fits your world view. Are you in the “urgent climate crisis,” “Just Stop Oil” camp and believe we need to ban new sales of internal combustion (ICE) vehicles by an upcoming round […]
Pause: LNG Permits, Saudi Capacity, TSLA
We had intended to follow-up last weeks’ ROCE Deep Dive post with examples of how to apply it to macro forecasting as well as sub-sector and company analysis.
Profits Over Prices: A Returns-Based Normalized Framework For Evaluating Traditional Energy
Be wary of deep cyclicals, like traditional energy, when over-earning is a classic caution rightfully exhibited by investors, or at least those not in the momentum trading camp.
Growth, Returns, and Sub-Sector Themes
In this video we bring those together with an expanded discussion on a number of sub-sectors including the international oil companies (IOCs) & Canadian “Big-4” oils, US “Big-3” downstream, midstream (includes pipelines and MLPs), and gassy E&Ps.
Ten Tactical Questions for Traditional Energy in 2024
We follow up on last week’s Big Themes post with a tactical look at 2024 from the perspective of traditional energy.
Big Themes for 2024: Normalization, Differentiation, and Phasing-In Profitable Growth
As we start 2024, distortions from the COVID era are finally receding; the world is normalizing. The over-arching big themes we see for both traditional and new energies this year are normalization, differentiation, and phasing-in profitable growth.
Phasing-In Profitable Growth: 2024 Preview
In what is likely to be our final Super-Spiked for 2023, we provide a 2024 preview with the theme of “phasing-in profitable growth.”
Lessons From 2023: New ROCE Regime At Odds With Demands To “Transition”
We continue our holiday season Lessons From 2023 series with a focus on our favorite topic: profitability!
Lessons from 2023: RIP “Fast Energy Transition” Narrative
Welcome to the 2023 holiday season! In this week’s post we’ll look at key takeaways from the year that is ending.
Returns, Risk Taking, and Resetting Valuation
his week’s issue of Super-Spiked is in the form of a video podcast and is a follow up to last week’s “Reframing the growth versus returns trade-off debate” post.