Volatility Not Vienna Redux: Ignore OPEC Noise Most of the Time
Volatility, not Vienna was the title of a 2000 era report we wrote at Goldman Sachs. The basic premise still holds 23 years later.
Revisiting The Role of Oil & Gas In Energy Transition
This week we provide a video update on our views on the appropriate role for oil & gas companies as it relates to so-called “energy transition.”
Pre-Summer Check-In on The Big Questions for 2023
Ahead of the traditional Memorial Day start to summer, we check in on the Five Big Questions for 2023 we highlighted in our New Years Day post.
Transitioning Corporate and Investor Risk Taking: Q&A and Clarifications
Our last two issues of Super-Spiked focused on the super theme that “The Energy Transition Needs to Transition” to one centered on figuring out how to meet the energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth that do not live in the United States, Europe, Canada, or Japan. This week we apply that lens of the “energy transition needs to transition” to one of our favorite topics: helping publicly-traded energy companies think through how to achieve one of three good long-term outcomes while avoiding the two bad ones.
Transitioning The Transition To a Rest of World Focus
This week we provide a video update on our view about the need for “energy transition” as a concept to itself transition to one that is focused on meeting the energy supply needs of the 7 billion people that live outside of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Japan.
Re-Centering “Energy Transition” To a Rest of World Focus
Our key takeaway coming out of CERAWeek 2023 was that the “energy transition” as a concept needed to transition, a perspective we believe is slowly being recognized by policy makers, energy companies, and the financial community.
The Freedom to Grow Base Distributions
Following a really poor decade of performance, the need to prioritize return on capital improvement and fixing the balance sheet was non-negotiable coming out of the deep COVID trough. Two and half years later, profitability is now dramatically better and balance sheets are largely fixed. The 2021-2022 get-better-or-die stage is over.
Where Are We In The Cycle
This week we present an update on “Where Are We In The Energy Cycle” with a focus on (1) sector profitability; (2) financing for traditional energy; and (3) the need to “extend the runway” by which companies can generate advantaged returns and shareholder distributions.
FAQ: OPEC Cuts and Forward Curves Amidst a Super Vol Macro Backdrop
This week we return to a Q&A styled note to address implications of the surprise OPEC cut from last Sunday. As always, our ultimate focus is on how this event impacts our intermediate- and longer-term views.
Will the Grass Be Greener as a Private? A Focus on SMID-Cap Traditional Energy
In this post, we revisit the pros and cons of ownership structure with a focus on SMID-cap traditional energy.