“A Forecast, Not A Scenario” Featuring Chris Birdsall, Exxon Mobil Corporation

Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Chris Birdsall, Director of Economics and Energy at Exxon Mobil Corporation. Chris joined Exxon as an engineer in 1996 and has served in several areas of the organization including manufacturing, technology, and commercial roles over the past 27 years. For the last five years, Chris has lead a team of economists, modelers, and researchers responsible for the research and data that shapes Exxon Mobil’s Global 2050 Outlook report (linked here). It was our pleasure to visit with Chris and learn more about his team, their views on long-term energy demand and supply, and have a chance to discuss all of the inputs and assumptions in an ambitious undertaking like this report.

Chris prepared select slides from Exxon’s 2050 Outlook to guide our conversation (the presentation slides are linked here). Chris walks us through the presentation but we stopped frequently for Q&A. We discussed a range of topics including how hard it is to do forecasts like this and why increasingly more organizations are choosing to put out scenarios rather than true forecasts, how Exxon’s long-term emissions outlook compares to outcomes in Paris-aligned or net-zero scenarios, the correlation between energy consumption and human development, population projections, what Chris describes as the “and” equation between balancing human development with emissions reduction efforts, global energy demand growth by sector, growth in renewables and natural gas generation, and Exxon’s underlying predictions for EV growth. We also discuss how interest rates and federal policies are factored into Exxon’s models, the significance of the next ten years in determining trends in meeting 2050 emissions goals, the sustained investment needed in oil and natural gas, and much more. It is always exciting to discuss and debate future energy outlooks and we want to thank Chris for sharing his insights and time with us today. We could have continued for another hour!

Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that global markets continue to alternate between hope and worry as to when/if Israel pursues a full-blown Gaza ground invasion and how much regional conflict/chaos that will drive. He discussed that U.S. equity markets continue to be mostly focused on the direction of 10-year bond yields, which surged above 5% recently but have since pulled back to roughly 4.85%. He also noted that bond traders are beginning to worry less about current economic stats and focus more on who’ll be the buyers of U.S. bonds given the endless annual U.S. budget deficits (~$2 trillion in 2023). He flagged that WTI crude oil price has plunged $5/bbl. this week due to the Israeli invasion of Gaza being temporarily delayed. He also highlighted an abundance of Q3 energy earnings reports this week from oil services, natural gas levered E&Ps and U.S. oil majors. He wrapped by highlighting the combined market-caps of recent U.S. oil major mega-deals and that they far exceed the market-cap of the next closest E.U. oil major. Arjun Murti noted recent M&A activity appears to be based on priced decks that carry more upside potential than downside risk and reiterated the need for a balanced energy mix. He also highlighted the current favorable environment for M&A activity given current market conditions, relatively lower oil and gas CapEx and growing pains in the new energy sector.

Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!